ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL EMISSION ANALYSIS IN INDONESIAN ELECTRICITY EXPANSION PLANNING: LOW-RANK COAL AND GEOTHERMAL ENERGY UTILIZATION SCENARIOS

Abstract

This paper examines the utilization of low-rank coal and
geothermal energy resources in the long-term Indonesian
electricity expansion planning in high populated islands,
such as Java, Madura, and Bali up to 2027. The long-term
electricity expansion of these areas meets several problems
such as supply security, financial limitation, and
environmental issues. Therefore, the modeling of long-term
geothermal and low-rank coal utilization is examined in
terms of expansion cost as well as the environmental
impacts. In 2027, the required capacity to fulfill the future
demand is estimated about 133 GW. Under the coal scenario,
the domination of coal becomes bigger with 75.4 GW or
57% of total electricity generation mix. However, under the
geothermal scenario, the installed power plant from
geothermal sources increases to be 7 GW and coal utilization
decreases to be only 67.6 GW or 51% of total electricity
generation share. In the economic perspective, more
geothermal power plant needs to be developed in order to
reduce to coal utilization in power generation. In the end of
the planning horizon, the coal scenario emits as much as 487
million tons of CO2 equivalents, while the geothermal
scenario succeeds to reduce emission by 43.3 million tons
out of the coal scenario’s emission