Economic Cycle and Bank Liquidity Hoarding: Are They Procyclical or Countercyclical?
Keywords:cyclical banking, economic cycle, liquidity hoarding, precautionary motive
The paper empirically examines bank liquidity hoarding fluctuations over the economic cycle and provides further evidence on the heterogeneous cyclicality of bank liquidity hoarding across different banks in Vietnam for the period 2007–2019. Using both static panel models with the fixed-effects regression using corrected Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and dynamic panel models with the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator, we find that the liquidity hoarding of banks is procyclical. Concretely bank liquidity hoarding on- and off-balance sheets tends to increase during economic upturns and decrease during economic downturns. Our additional analysis yields a consistent pattern that financially weaker banks are more procyclical than their stronger counterparts. During booms and busts, the behaviour of hoarding liquidity is more pronounced for banks with smaller sizes, less capital, more risk, and less profit. This heterogeneity also contributes to understanding the core mechanism behind our main findings, further confirming the precautionary motive of bank liquidity hoarding.